Trump’s Coup Will Fail. But What About the Next One?
Ever since the election was called for President-elect Biden, the Trump Administration has spent all of their time and energy denying reality. From frivolous lawsuits to bogus claims of “voter fraud,” it seems like Trump and his sycophants will do anything to avoid admitting the simple fact that they lost. No matter how many lawsuits they file or how much money they grift from their gullible supporters to line their own pockets, none of this will change the fact that Trump’s catastrophic presidency is coming to an end. Whether Trump likes it or not, on January 20, 2021, Joseph Biden will be sworn in as President of the United States and Trump’s one-term presidency will be officially over.
It’s hard to watch Trump and his henchmen attempt to conduct a rogue political coup and not laugh. Thus far, Trump’s brilliant legal team, now directed by renowned legal scholar Rudy Giuliani, have booked the wrong Four Seasons to hold a press conference, named the wrong state in a legal affidavit alleging voter fraud, and stated in court that Republican observers did, in fact, have access to ballot counting, they have no evidence of widespread voter fraud, nor are they even alleging that widespread voter fraud took place. Oh, and we can’t forget Giuliani standing before a judge not knowing what the terms “opacity” and “strict scrutiny” mean or that he’s apparently melting right before our eyes.
Who knew that an unprecedented coup attempt could be so entertaining? Honestly, I’ve seen more plausible storylines in a telenovela. It’s okay to laugh; I certainly have. After all, it is genuinely funny. Nevertheless, once the laughter dies down, we then have to ask ourselves, would we be laughing if Trump and his band of bootlickers weren’t such feckless morons?
Those who oppose Trump have undoubtedly been aided by the fact that he is an undeniable idiot. Prior to becoming president, Trump had absolutely no political experience or education. His ignorance of government functions was a central aspect of Trump’s 2016 campaign. (Side note, can anyone else think of any job in which your lack of experience is spun as a positive? Me neither.) To this day, Trump has no idea how the federal government operates or even what the job of president entails. As a result, over the past four years, Trump has been blindly pushing the buttons in the presidential cockpit having no idea what they do or if they will work. Yet, in spite of Trump’s ignorance, he has done incredible, and in many cases irreversible, damage.
Can you imagine how bad it will be when the GOP nominates someone who does know how the government works? A candidate who knows exactly what legal loopholes they can exploit and how to stage a successful coup, should they lose? It’s a scary thought and not far-fetched either. There is this tendency to believe that the United States will go back to “normal” post-Trump. Given the unprecedented nature of the Trump presidency, this is an understandable inclination, especially now that Biden has won and promised just that: a return to normal. However, it’s also not entirely accurate.
When you study political science, you learn two main concepts about the American presidency: one, the powers of the presidency have grown dramatically over time and, two, if a president gets away with doing something that is not explicitly stipulated in the Constitution, it’s generally considered fair game for any future president to not only do the same as their predecessor but also to expand upon it. Presidential precedents are crucially important in that they help to carve out the limitations (or lack thereof) of the job. Trump has gotten away with a lot. Unless he is legally held accountable for every time he unconstitutionally abused executive power, future presidents will have virtually unrestrained power.
Many folks won’t consider this a serious threat under President-elect Biden and that’s a fair assumption. Biden won’t exploit the presidential precedents established by Trump in order to become a ruthless dictator. But can we confidently say this about the next Republican president? I certainly can’t. It’s important to remember that Biden won’t be president forever and Democrats shouldn’t convince ourselves that we will win every presidential election going forward. Odds are, we won’t. Republicans have major structural advantages at winning the presidency, i.e. the Electoral College, voter suppression, and gerrymandering, and they will likely elect a president in the future. Do we honestly believe that Republicans are going to run anyone short of Trump 2.0?
Let’s be clear, Republicans are never going to run another Mitt Romney. Trump wasn’t some rogue operative who hijacked the Republican Party. Republicans weren’t strong-armed or tricked into supporting Trump: they did it enthusiastically. Trump didn’t accidentally stumble into the presidency. He got to the White House with the full backing of the GOP, who then proudly supported and enabled Trump’s disastrous agenda. The Republican Party has marched in lockstep with Trump for the entirety of his presidency. They didn’t reluctantly make a temporary deal with a devil named Trump; the GOP is the party of Trump.
Trump lost the election, but Trumpism hasn’t gone anywhere. Over 73 million Americans enthusiastically voted for it. The GOP didn’t even bother to create a campaign platform (they just recycled their platform from 2016) and the Trump campaign didn’t have any messaging other than, “let me stay in power, as is my birthright!” Yet, Republicans had record turnout rates in the 2020 presidential election. In fact, Trump received nearly 11 million more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. Why would the GOP abandon this strategy? When Republicans ran self-proclaimed “moderates” like John McCain and Mitt Romney, they lost. Whereas, when they leaned into the fringes of the right-wing with Trump, they won in 2016. All Republicans have to do is find some braggadocios, rich white guy with a penchant for fascism and bigotry and they’re golden. Apparently, there are plenty of those to go around.
If Republicans had lost their base in 2020, then GOP party leadership would have undoubtedly changed course. They would have pretended that Trump never existed in an attempt to salvage their own public image. Theoretically, this could have been the end of the modern-day Republican Party as we know it. Clearly, that wasn’t the story of the 2020 election. Unbridled fascism and bigotry are working for Republicans. It’s foolish to think that they are going to do anything differently.
Therein lies the danger. The Trump administration has been a nonstop dumpster fire. Yes, we put out the Trump fire by voting him out, but the GOP is ready and waiting to light another one. Our plan for preventing American democracy from devolving into a dictatorship can’t rest on the assumption that the GOP will exercise self-control. They won’t. Nor can we become complacent under President-elect Biden. We need to put up strong guardrails around the presidency right now.
First, Trump must be prosecuted at the federal and state level. I don’t want to hear one word about how he should be pardoned for the sake of “moving forward” or whatever other nonsense excuse Republicans will pull out of thin air. No, Trump should be prosecuted so that we can move forward and decisively say that we will never do this again. Secondly, any restrictions on the presidency that rest on unenforceable norms or customs need to be explicitly stipulated in the law. No more assuming that the president will just “do the right thing”: we need to put specific laws in place to ensure it. Lastly, end presidential immunity. Legislation needs to be enacted that states a sitting president can be criminally prosecuted. Toss out the Justice Department memo that allowed Trump to temporarily avoid prosecution during the Mueller probe. If the law applies to everyone, including the president, then they shouldn’t be “…‘constitutionally immune’ from indictment and criminal prosecution.”
I understand that I’ve painted a pretty bleak picture of the United States post-Trump. This article isn’t meant to diminish the potential of the incoming Biden administration: they will do great things and undo a lot of the damage that Trump inflicted. And that’s worth celebrating! But we also can’t afford to disregard the long-term impacts of the Trump presidency. Biden’s win is not a free pass for us to become complacent and ignore politics. That’s how Republicans amass power, disregard the law, and get away with it. If anything, the Biden presidency bought us some critical time to seal off the gaping holes in executive power before Republicans take them and run. While it is daunting work, we must do it if we plan on having a functioning democracy in the years to come.
